AUTO SALES ZOOM

The Consumer Confidence Index may have dropped in the month of September, but this certainly does not seem to be reflected in the auto sector as car sales reached record heights in the month. The festive season along with more bonuses and increasing job confidence seems to have driven this frenzy of buying. Another important factor has been the availability of cheaper finance. The month of September saw an impressive 1.60 lac units being sold against 1.32 lac units sold in Sep 08. This is an impressive 21% growth in a sluggish environment.
Even the traditionally inauspicious period of Sharad did not effect sales with consumers continuing their spending binge.
With this conflicting consumer behavior, it would be interesting to see how sales pick up across other categories during the month of October - the most important festive season for all retailers.

LOW CONSUMER SPENDING IN SEPTEMBER

Consumer confidence seems to have dipped lower in the month of September . With worries on inflation, state of the economy, inadequate monsoon and job security, consumers have switched to savings mode rather than spending mode. In September, the CNBC-TV18 Boston Analytics Consumer Confidence Index dropped by 1%. compared to August.
With increased propensity to save by consumers, the savings component of the Index showed a rise. The study revealed that the upcoming festive season does not seem to have propelled spending either which continues to remain extremely weak. Of the respondents interviewed, only 20% were willing to buy consumer durables this year as against 60% last year.
Industry players however maintain that though September was a slow month, things are picking up and trends after the period of Sharads show a 25 - 30% growth. Mr V Ramachandran, Director Marketing maintains that the outlook is positive.
The 1st week of October should give an indication of how the season would shape up.

NILKAMAL TO INCREASE STORES THREE FOLD

News from the Nilkamal stable is that they plan to increase their stores to 65 from the current 15 stores by 2013. Nilkamal stores branded @home are currently located in the major metros. The plan is to expand to Tier II and Tier III towns in North and East India.
One of the largest players in the moulded furniture market, Nilkamal is planning to invest Rs 140 crores in this activity.

LIFESTYLE PLANS TO DOUBLE TURNOVER

Lifestyle International , the Indian arm of the Dubai based Landmark group plans to double its turnover from the current 1400 crores to 3000 crores in 2 and a half years.
The Landmark Group - a Rs 16,800 crore retail conglomerate plans to invest Rs 1000 crores in India to expand its activity in India. The main emphasis would be on Lifestyle and Home Centre. This was stated by Mr Kabir Lumba , Executive Director in an interview recently.
The current turnover of the group in India is Rs 1400 crores with Rs 1000 crores coming from Lifestyle and Home Centre.
Besides the 3 formats of Lifestyle, Home Centre and Max Retail, the company has no plans to introduce any other format. However they are planning to enter Tier II towns like Kanpur and Nagpur in 2011-12 with a change in price positioning.

RURAL RETAIL DOWNTURN

Indications and news from rural India are that all is not well over there. There are strong signs of a slowing down in that market. Organised retailers in rural India are facing an all round slowing of sales and the pick up in sales that happens during this festive season is just not there.
So far it had seemed that the rural markets were insulated from the downtrend that had gripped the rest of India . It now seems that the impact of a late and weak monsoon is having its effect in these markets. The consumer electronics markets too have seen a slowing down in the months of June to August. This has picked up - but only slightly.
In large parts of India, the periods of Navratras and Diwali see a huge upswing in sales . Whereas this is missing till now, the next few days would be a good indicator of the direction that the markets would take.
Retailers therefore need to be careful in their buying plans as they could land up with large unsold inventories at the end of the season.

CONSUMER DURABLES GROWTH RATES

The consumer durables market in India is showing very aggressive and promising growth. The following table gives the projected growth rates in 2009.
It must also be kept in mind that the period October to January normally shows a 3 times growth in sales over the previous quarter. The festival season coupled with the marriage season that falls during this period gives this spurt in sales.

IS BIYANI HIVING OFF BIG BAZAAR

Reports say that Kishore Biyani is looking to hive off his hypermarket Big Bazaar chain of outlets. This is part of his ambitious restructuring and growth plans as this would enable release of locked value. Biyani's plans to make his group into a 25,000 crores group.
The group is looking at various options to raise funds as it is planning to add 18 million sq feet of retail space across its different formats by the year 2015. Currently there are 116 Big Bazaar hypermarkets across the country with total retail area of 4 million square feet and markets over 1.6 lac products.
The current turnover of the group is Rs 10,000 crores. It is planning to achieve a target of 13,000 crores by 2010.

CONSUMER DURABLES PENETRATION

Some important data on penetration of consumer durables in rural and urban markets in India :
TVs : 76 % urban penetration against 36% rural penetration
Refrigerators : 32% urban and 5% rural penetration
Washing Machines : Only 1% rural penetration
Air Conditioners : Urban penetration of 3% and rural less than 1%
In the process of increased penetration, it is evident that rural market consumers require brands. It is brands and the heavy marketing activity that is possible by these brands that would increase penetration. The rural markets are growing and major increases can be expected.

CONSUMER DURABLES MARKET

With the onset of the Festive Season, there will now be a big spurt of demand for the entire range of consumer durables consisting of white goods (Refrigerators and Washing Machines) , Kitchen appliances and Consumer Electronics consisting of audio video equipment. Stocking by all major retailers as well as smaller individual outlets would already have started in earnest in anticipation of the season and it is not uncommon for manufacturers not being able to cope up with the demand. Prudent retailers therefore stock before the season. . Normally the market increases almost 3 fold during this time. ALL BUYERS THEREFORE SHOULD ENSURE THAT THEIR BUYING FOR THE SEASON IS COMPLETE AT LEAST A MONTH BEFORE DIWALI.

The consumer durable market in India is a dynamic and fast growing market. With disposable incomes increasing, there is an increasing demand for these products. The market size in India is today estimated to be around Rs 25000 crores, The chart below gives a graphic representation of the market size of different segments of this industry.

SMALL IS BIG

Small packs of FMCG products priced between Rs 2 and ten are doing roaring business. These are expected to contribute to 35 to 40% of total sales. Industry specialist say that consumers are going in for these smaller packs because of the inflationary pressures that exist this year. All major FMCG companies are focusing on small unit pack sizes from where they expect the volumes. In this environment, price points play an extremely important role . Both the big players - HUL and ITC are focusing on the Rs 10 price point products and their advertising campaigns too are targeted to customers with these products in mind.

FESTIVAL PUBLICITY

A few days back I wrote that retailers are planning to unleash a publicity blitz in the coming festival season in expectation of a buoyant season.

The first retailer to kick off their festival advertising campaign is Big Bazaar with a full page ad in national dailies in Delhi.

The message ' WELCOME ! FESTIVE SEASON ! '

Focus is on attractive offers - Buy 2 get 1 Free on stainless steel utensils, Sandwich toaster for Rs 549, Pressure Cooker for Rs 399 and many more offers.

Expect some real action this season !!

KHUSHALI BAZAAR DOWNS SHUTTERS

According to informed sources, Triveni Retail Ventures, the retail arm of Triveni Engineering and Industries is shutting closing down all it's retail outlets . The company has  42 'Triveni Kushali Bazaar ' spread across 25 small towns and offers agri, consumer products and financial services.

Triveni has for some time been looking for a buyer for its retail venture but has not managed to find any as yet. The Triveni Group is a big player in sugar and engineering equipment and entered the retail sector in 2007 with 45 stores. It had planned to increase the no of stores to around 250 by mid 2010.

The other players in the retail sector in  rural and semi-urban India are DSCL's 'Haryali Kisaan Bazaar', 'Adhar' ( formerly Godrej Adhar but now a part of Future Group) and ITC's 'Choupal Saagar' .  Hariyali Kisaan Bazaar with over 300 outlets spread over nine states is the most aggressive and successful offering a range of agri products, consumer goods and apparel .

Are Carrefour and Future Group Hooking up ?

Lars Olofsson, the Global Chief Executive of the world's no 2 retailer - Carrefour was here in India recently on a hush-hush visit . He met with Mr Kishore Biyani of Future Group to discuss the possibility of a tie up between the 2 companies.

The discussions between the 2 companies focuses on a cash and carry model. The advantage for the Future Goup is the immense experience and expertise that Carrefour would bring while Carrefour would have the advantage of entering the Indian market with the biggest player in India as it's partner.

Both the leaders also visited Big Bazaar outlets in Delhi

Top Retailers of the World

This is a list of top retailers in the world with their ranking in world trade.

The biggest of course is Wal-mart with a turnover of US$ 410 billion which is larger than the domestic product of 39 countries of the world. In a sense Walmart almost qualifies as a country by itself

Figures in Brackets is the rank in world trade and the first no is rank as retailer.

1. (8)         Wal-Mart, US                                      2. (83)      CVS Caremark, US
3.(127)     Home Depot, US                                4. (137)    Target, US
5.(166)     Lowe's, US                                          6.(186)      Walgreen, US
7.(257)     Costco Wholesale, US                       8.(288)      PPR, France
9.(298)     Best Buy, US                                      10.(457)      Ebay, US
11.(459)   Staples, US                                        12.(469)     Marks & Spencer, UK
13.(477)   Aeon, Japan                                       14.(494)     Kohl's, US
15.(520)   Amazon.com, US                               16.(561)  H&M Hennes & Mauritz, Sweden
17.(597)   Kingfisher, UK                                    18.(640)   Gap, US
19.(655)   TJX Cos, US                                       20.(706)  Lotte Shopping, South Korea
21.(718)   Macy's, US                                          22.(728)  JC Penney, US
23.(739)   Sears Holdings, US                           24.(774)   Shinsegae, South Korea
25.(845)   Yamada Denki, Japan                       26.(880)   Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings, Japan
27.(895)   Home Retail Group, UK                     28.(904)    AutoZone, US
29. (935)  Shoppers Drug Mart, Canada           30.(962)   Sherwin-Williams, US
31.(966)   Esprit Holdings, Hong Kong/China
32.(1002)    Bed Bath & Beyond, US         33. (1016)  Fast Retailing, Japan
34.(1039)    Falabella, Chile                                35.(1055)    Suning Appliance, China
36.(1058)    Cencosud, Chile                               37.(1095)    Next, UK
38.(1101)    GameStop, US                                 39.(1106)    Arcandor, Germany
40.(1165)    Grupo Elektra, Mexico                     41.(1208)    Nordstrom, US
42.(1232)    Rite Aid, US                                      43.(1271)    Ross Stores, US
44.(1307)    Liberty Media-Interactive, US
45.(1352)    Family Dollar Stores, US
46.(1362)    Daiei, Japan                                     47.(1364)   Canadian Tire, Canada
48.(1384)    Inchcape, UK                                    49.(1412)   Limited Brands, US
50.(1482)    DSG International, UK                     51.(1517)   Advance Auto Parts, US
52.(1557)    El Puerto de Liverpool, Mexico
53.(1601)    J Front Retailing, Japan                 54.(1603)   Dollar Tree, US
55.(1627)    Fastenal, US                                    56.(1671)   D'Ieteren, Belgium
57.(1676)   Takashimaya, Japan                        58.(1689)   AutoNation, US
59.(1714)   Office Depot, US                              60.(1734)  Carphone Warehouse, UK
61.(1817)   Penske Automotive Gp, US
62.(1845)   Soriana, Mexico                               63.(1888)  O'Reilly Automotive, US
64.(1902)   Pendragon, UK                                65.(1906)   BJ's Wholesale Club, US
66.(1925)   CarMax, US                                     67.(1998)   Kesa Electricals, UK

No Indian retailer finds a place amongst the top 2000 companies in terms of trade ranking,

RETAILERS PLAN HIGHER MARKETING SPEND FOR THE COMING FESTIVE SEASON

Retailers are all ready to unleash a promotional blitz in the forthcoming Festival season. It is expected that the Indian retail sector will up its marketing and promotional expenditure by at least 20 percent. Traditionally the period from October to January is peak season for all retailers. Sales move into top gear at the end of Sharaads and beginning of Navratras which start from the 18th of September this year.

Retailers normally spend about 40% of thier marketing budgets on advertising and the balance is spent on promotional schemes and special festival discounts.

With the revival of the monsoon and lifting of the stock markets, retailers are buoyant about the coming festive season and expect to do good business.

Bharti introduces Walmart's Private Labels

Bharti Stores in India have introduced 8 Walmart private labels. In a first, the world's largest supermarket chain have introduced their labels in stores not owned by them. Amongst the private labels being introduced are its top selling 'Great Value' food brand and 'George' clothing brands.
Private labels play a prominent role in the overall merchandise strategy of this $ 400 Billion ( Annual) chain. Walmart currently operates in 16 countries though a network of 7800 stores. It is estimated that the food private labels alone contribute to about 16% of the turnover.

Spencer's seeks Private Equity

Spencer's Retail, a part of the RPG group is looking for private investors to offload 10% stake. In a statement , Mr Sanjiv Goenka announced that the company was in negotiations with more than 1 private investor to offload 10% equity stake in the company. Spencer's retail expects to break-even in about 12 months and this move is aimed at raising funds for its cautious expansion plans. Spencer's have opened 5 new stores in the last 3 months and plans to add another 10 this fiscal. It would be recalled that Spencer's in the last year had gone on a major cost cutting exercise and shut down 100 enviable stores.. The company plans to invest 100 crores this fiscal to fund its expansion plans and expects to break even at the store level in 6 months.

ORGANISED RETAILERS COME TOGETHER TO CUT COSTS

ORGANISED RETAILERS JOIN UP
With increased competition, dwindling margins and a lethargic business environment, major retailers in India have come together to forge a coalition of sorts to leverage and share common resources. Top players like Future Group, Spencers Retail, Aditya Birla Retail and Reliance retail have come together to align their sourcing operations and share private labels, logistics, warehouses and hiring details on a transactional payment basis.

Mr. Kishore Biyani, MD of Future Group however has emphasized that the competition at the front end would remain as before. It is only the back end operations that would be shared. He added that their infrastructure and resources were designed to be shared with others.

Retailers expect to improve operating margins by 2 to 3 % by sharing their back end resources.

The idea of a coalition emerged after a series of meetings in Mumbai between Mr. Kishore Biyani, Mr. Raghu Pillai – CEO , Reliance Retail, Mr. Sanjiv Goenka – Vice Chairman, RPG Enterprises and Mr. Thomas Verghese – CEO, Aditya Birla Group.

Hariyali Kisaan Bazaar to become seperate Entity

DCM Shriram Consolidated ltd, parent company of Haryali Kisaan Bazaar is planning to hive off the company as an independent entity. The retail arm of Hariyali Kisaan Bazaar is currently a Rs 400 crore plus business with a little over 300 stores spread across 8 states.. This move is expected within a year’s time with the purpose of picking up capital from the market to fund its expansion plans. The retail arm is expected to grow to 500 stores within the next 2 years and revenue to 750 crores.

In a statement by Mr. Ajay Shrram, Chairman cum Senior Managing Director of DSCL, the company is planning to invest Rs 200 to Rs 300 crores for expansion. He also informed that though the company is currently negative in profits , it was expected to turn positive in the next couple of years.

The company has shown impressive growth – from 70 stores in 2007 to 160 stores in 2008 to 302 stores in 2009 . The offering at these stores include agri products, food and FMCG, lifestyle products which include apparel and footwear, home linen, consumer durables and other household products. . HKB operates in 2 formats – the larger Centre which is on a plot size of 2 to 4 acres and has facilities of petrol pump, warehousing , output collection and the HKB Stores. HKB Centres are located in rural areas on highways connecting two towns. The other smaller format – HKB Stores is located in market places of small towns and is spread over areas of 2000 to 4000 sqft... HKB has currently 82 centers and 220 stores.

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Retail Ads - The week that was

Retailers this week highlighted the following occasions

1. Festival of Raksha Bandhan
2. Independence Day
3. Anniversary
4. Close of Sales

The predominant theme however was Raksha Bhandan which falls on the 5th of August. The most appropriate ad in copy and offering is Shopper's stop which has the headline talking of ' Gift your sister '. The ad goes on to highlight relevant products for gifting.

Vishal Mega Mart also has Raksha Bandan as the theme emphasizing on the Bandhan element. The offering however has no relevance to the festival and none of the products highlighted could be used as a gift for a sister.

Big Bazaar too focuses on Raksha Bandhan , but the theme remains 'Savings' as the ad talks of gifts from savings from ration purchases. Any relevance ??

With Independence Day just 2 weeks away, Croma is using the occasion to promote their offering by linking them to independence and announcing a special 'Independence Sale'E-Zone celebrates it's anniversary with special offersPantaloon's closes it's sale